Earthquakes Stronger than 4.9 Nearly Doubling This Year

March 11, 2021

Chart compares number of earthquakes greater than 4.9 mag occurring between January 1 and March 9, by year.

Watch Post Special Report - A recent study conducted by the Watch Post shows that worldwide earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 4.9 have increased almost 100% so far this year when compared to the same time last year.

The study compares the number of earthquakes with magnitude 5.0 and greater occurring between January 1 and March 9 in 2020 and 2021.

According to the USGS, the total number of 5.0+ quakes occurring during roughly the first 70 days of 2020 was 297. This year’s total has eclipsed that with 295 more incidents.

Strong seismic activity this year started out slightly less active than last, but that changed in February. March isn’t showing any signs of slowing down either.

Table 1. Number of earthquakes by magnitude, by month, comparing 2020 to 2021.

Because this study includes only earthquakes that registered at least 5.0 on the Richter Scale, it reflects only the increase in stronger quakes. However, those that came in below the 5.0 threshold have undoubtedly increased as well.

Table 2. Yearly Variance in Earthquakes by Magnitude

Data reveals that not only are earthquakes more frequent this year, but they are comparatively stronger. We haven’t experienced an 8.0 or larger since 2019. There were 9 quakes in the 7.0 to 7.9 range in 2019 and 9 in 2020 also. Already this year we’ve had 5 on that scale.

Some scientists claim that earthquakes aren’t really becoming more frequent, its just that we have more instruments and better technology with which to measure them. The USGS states that temporary increases and decreases in seismicity are quite normal.

The last time a drastic increase or decrease in activity occurred was in 2012. That year, the total number of 5.0+ quakes dropped about 38%. There were 2,481 in 2011, but only 1,523 in 2012.

In an article about the possible connection between weather and seismic activity, NASA claims that there’s very little link. Large scale climate change may play a part, but much depends upon the changes in the stress loads put upon the Earth’s crust. For example, heavy monsoon rainfall, longstanding droughts, and glacial melt all change the amount of pressure that tectonic plates must tolerate.

This year has also brought a rise in global volcanic activity, leaving many to wonder if there’s a connection. Experts say that some earthquakes certainly are related to volcanic eruptions (and vice versa), but this is not always the case. Earth Observatory of Singapore explains it like this:

“When you superimpose a map of active volcanoes in the world on a map of earthquakes during the past thirty years, you can see that they match perfectly. That is because most of the volcanism and most of the seismic activity on Earth are localized on the boundaries between tectonic plates. However, these two phenomena are not directly related.”

While we can’t be certain what the rest of the year has in store, it seems like 2021 is posed to break a whole new set of geological records. To keep track of earthquakes around the world, visit the USGS. If you live near a fault line or in the vicinity of an active volcano, check out Dutchsinse for in-depth analysis and predicted possible events.

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Cover photo showing inside of office / results of 7.3 magnitude quake in Japan on 2/13/2021 - credit/source Kyodo News